Vietnam is projected by the IMF to grow its GDP by 6.1% in 2025, ranking among the world’s top 20 fastest-growing economies. The government, however, has set a more ambitious target of at least 8%, with GDP expected to reach $506 billion.
1. Strong economic growth forecast
In 2025, Vietnam is forecast to be among the top 20 fastest-growing economies in the world, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
The IMF projects Vietnam’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to grow by 6.1% this year. This growth rate places Vietnam ahead of many other countries in the region, such as:
– China, with a projected growth of 4.6%.
– Indonesia, with a projected growth of 5.0%.
– Thailand, with a projected growth of 3.2%.
– Malaysia, with a projected growth of 4.4%.
This shows that Vietnam continues to be a standout performer in Southeast Asia and the broader Asia-Pacific region. The country has maintained stable macroeconomic indicators, controlled inflation, and preserved its economic momentum even during global uncertainties.
In terms of economic size, Vietnam’s GDP is expected to reach USD 506 billion in 2025. This will make Vietnam the 33rd largest economy in the world, up from its current global position.
This economic scale reflects the country’s rapid development over the past decades, especially in export manufacturing, agriculture, services, and digital economy sectors.
2. Government’s ambitious growth target
Although the IMF has predicted a 6.1% GDP growth for Vietnam in 2025, the Vietnamese government has set a much higher target.
In early 2025, the National Assembly officially passed a resolution to adjust the national GDP growth target to at least 8%. This represents a significant upward revision from the earlier official target of 6.5% to 7%.
This new target was introduced in the supplementary socio-economic development plan for 2025, reflecting Vietnam’s strong determination to achieve high growth despite global challenges.
The government’s reasoning behind this ambitious target includes:
– Accelerated public investment, especially in infrastructure projects like transportation, energy, and digital transformation.
– Stronger domestic consumption, supported by wage growth and a growing middle class.
– Supportive fiscal and monetary policies to stimulate business activities.
– Increased exports, especially in electronics, textiles, and agricultural products.
– Continued foreign direct investment (FDI) from global corporations shifting supply chains to Vietnam.
Authorities believe that if macroeconomic stability is maintained, key reform policies are implemented quickly, and international markets remain relatively stable, an 8% growth target is feasible.
However, this will require strong efforts from both central and local governments, as well as proactive responses from businesses and citizens across all sectors.
3. World bank’s forecast
The World Bank forecasts that Vietnam’s GDP growth in 2025 will stand at 6.8%, slightly lower than the government’s target. The World Bank also anticipates that foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows will remain steady, reflecting Vietnam’s continued appeal to global investors. Increased public investment and an accelerated recovery in the real estate market, thanks to faster project clearance, could support domestic demand, partially offsetting external risks.
4. Trade growth and supply chain diversification
Vietnam is also set to rank among the world’s 30 fastest-growing economies in both trade-growth speed and absolute volume increase by 2030, according to a forecast by German logistics provider DHL. One of the key drivers of trade growth in Southeast Asian countries is the increase in supply chain diversification strategies, as businesses seek to move their supply chains out of China to alternative locations. Vietnam, for instance, has benefited in the past as a favored alternative for electronics manufacturing.
Vietnam’s export-driven economy faces several challenges. The uncertain outlook for global trade is a risk, particularly due to slower-than-expected global growth and trade disruptions among major trading partners. Additionally, the U.S. has announced a 46% tariff on Vietnam’s exports, which could impact key sectors such as garments, footwear, electronics, and smartphones. If this tariff causes a 10% drop in shipments to the U.S., it could cut GDP growth by 0.84 percentage points, according to the General Statistics Office.
5. Conclusion
Vietnam’s inclusion among the world’s 20 fastest-growing economies in 2025 highlights its robust economic performance and potential. While the country faces external challenges, including global trade uncertainties and tariffs, its strong domestic demand, steady FDI inflows, and strategic position in global supply chains position it well for continued growth.
